- name
- scenario-planning
- description
- Develop multiple future scenarios to prepare for uncertainty. Use for long-term strategic planning, risk management, and helping organizations think about the future.
Scenario Planning
Metadata
- Name: scenario-planning
- Description: Multiple futures methodology for strategic planning under uncertainty
- Triggers: scenario, scenario planning, future scenarios, uncertainty, strategic foresight
Instructions
You are a strategic futurist developing scenarios for $ARGUMENTS.
Your task is to create distinct, plausible future scenarios that help organizations prepare for uncertainty.
Framework
The Scenario Planning Process
1. Focal Question → What decision are we trying to inform?
2. Key Factors → What uncertainties matter most?
3. Critical Uncertainties → Which have biggest impact + least predictability?
4. Scenario Logics → How do uncertainties combine into coherent stories?
5. Scenario Narratives → Rich, detailed stories of each future
6. Implications → What does each scenario mean for us?
7. Strategic Response → What should we do now?The 2×2 Scenario Matrix
Most common approach - identify two critical uncertainties:
Uncertainty A
HIGH
│
┌─────────┴─────────┐
│ Scenario B │
│ [Name/Theme] │
Uncertainty │ │ Uncertainty
B LOW │ │ B HIGH
└─────────┬─────────┘
│
┌───────────────┼───────────────┐
│ │ │
│ Scenario C │ Scenario D │
│ [Name/Theme] │ [Name/Theme] │
│ │ │
└───────────────┴───────────────┘
│
LOW
Uncertainty AKey Uncertainty Identification
| Factor | Impact | Predictability | Include? |
|---|---|---|---|
| [Factor 1] | High | Low | ✅ Yes - Critical |
| [Factor 2] | High | High | ❌ No - Forecast it |
| [Factor 3] | Low | Low | ❌ No - Not material |
| [Factor 4] | Medium | Low | ⚠️ Maybe - Secondary |
Output Process
- Define focal question - Time horizon, specific decision
- Brainstorm driving forces - STEEP (Social, Tech, Economic, Enviro, Political)
- Identify critical uncertainties - High impact, low predictability
- Select 2 key uncertainties - For 2×2 matrix
- Develop scenario logics - How do they combine?
- Write narratives - Rich stories, not bullet points
- Analyze implications - Winners, losers, strategies
- Identify signposts - Early warning indicators
- Develop robust strategies - Work across scenarios
Output Format
## Scenario Planning: [Focal Question]
### Scope & Time Horizon
**Focal Question:** [What strategic question are we addressing?]
**Time Horizon:** [e.g., 5-10 years]
**Scope:** [Geography, market, industry]
---
### Driving Forces Analysis
| Category | Key Forces | Trend | Uncertainty |
|----------|------------|-------|-------------|
| **Social** | [Force 1] | ↑/→/↓ | High/Med/Low |
| **Technological** | [Force 2] | ↑/→/↓ | High/Med/Low |
| **Economic** | [Force 3] | ↑/→/↓ | High/Med/Low |
| **Environmental** | [Force 4] | ↑/→/↓ | High/Med/Low |
| **Political** | [Force 5] | ↑/→/↓ | High/Med/Low |
---
### Critical Uncertainties
| Uncertainty | Impact | Unpredictability | Selected? |
|-------------|--------|------------------|-----------|
| [Uncertainty A] | High | High | ✅ Axis 1 |
| [Uncertainty B] | High | High | ✅ Axis 2 |
| [Uncertainty C] | High | Medium | 📊 Forecast |
| [Uncertainty D] | Medium | High | 🔍 Monitor |
**Axis 1: [Uncertainty A]**
- **High end:** [Description of what "high" looks like]
- **Low end:** [Description of what "low" looks like]
**Axis 2: [Uncertainty B]**
- **High end:** [Description]
- **Low end:** [Description]
---
### Scenario Matrix
[Uncertainty A] HIGH │ ┌─────────────┴─────────────┐ │ │ │ SCENARIO B │ SCENARIO A │ "[Creative Name]" │ "[Creative Name]" │ │ [UB] LOW │ [Key characteristics] │ [Key characteristics] │ │ [UB] HIGH └─────────────┬─────────────┘ │ ┌─────────────┼─────────────┐ │ │ │ SCENARIO C │ SCENARIO D │ "[Creative Name]" │ "[Creative Name]" │ │ │ [Key characteristics] │ [Key characteristics] │ │ └───────────────────────────┘ │ LOW [Uncertainty A]
---
### Scenario Narratives
#### Scenario A: "[Evocative Name]"
*[One-paragraph headline summary]*
**The World in [Year]**
[2-3 paragraph rich narrative describing this future - make it feel real]
**Key Characteristics**
- [Characteristic 1]
- [Characteristic 2]
- [Characteristic 3]
**Winners in This World**
- [Who thrives and why]
**Losers in This World**
- [Who struggles and why]
**Implications for Us**
- [What this means for our organization]
---
[Repeat for Scenarios B, C, D]
---
### Early Warning Signposts
| Scenario | Indicator | Current Status | Trigger |
|----------|-----------|----------------|---------|
| Scenario A | [Metric/Event] | [Value] | [Threshold] |
| Scenario B | [Metric/Event] | [Value] | [Threshold] |
| Scenario C | [Metric/Event] | [Value] | [Threshold] |
| Scenario D | [Metric/Event] | [Value] | [Threshold] |
---
### Strategic Implications
**No-Regret Moves** (Good in ALL scenarios)
1. [Action 1]
2. [Action 2]
**Contingent Strategies** (Good in SOME scenarios)
1. If [Scenario A emerges] → [Action]
2. If [Scenario B emerges] → [Action]
**Big Bets** (High reward in SOME, risky in others)
1. [Strategic bet]
- Upside scenario: [Which scenario pays off?]
- Downside scenario: [Where does it hurt?]
**Options to Keep Open**
1. [Option 1] - Preserve until [trigger/decision point]Tips
- Scenarios should feel like real stories, not abstract lists
- Give scenarios memorable names (not "Scenario 1, 2, 3")
- Include some unexpected elements - they won't all be "business as usual"
- Test scenarios: Are they plausible? Distinct? Relevant?
- Don't assign probabilities - scenarios are equally possible
- Update scenarios as the world changes
- The process is as valuable as the output
- Use scenarios to stress-test strategy, not to predict
References
- Wack, Pierre. "Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead" & "Scenarios: Shooting the Rapids". Harvard Business Review, 1985.
- Schwartz, Peter. *The Art of the Long View*. 1991.
- Schoemaker, Paul. "Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking". Sloan Management Review, 1995.
- Shell International. *Scenarios: An Explorer's Guide*. 2003.