李开复金融时报专栏谈AI时代中层管理者价值重塑

AI时代，中层管理者的价值重塑

文｜李开复博士

图源：Julia Garan／Alamy

早在1958年，两位富有远见的管理学者就在《哈佛商业评论》上预言：到20世纪80年代，计算机将取代中层管理。他们的预言超前时代，却只说对了一半。计算机的确让许多管理事务实现了自动化，却始终没能取代管理者本人。

21世纪初，硅谷曾尝试大幅压缩管理层级，推动组织扁平化。谷歌也做过这样的尝试，结果，联合创始人拉里·佩奇很快便被报销单和人事纠纷等日常事务淹没。短短几个月后，公司便恢复了管理岗位。

2005年，我加入谷歌，负责拓展中国业务时，实际上必须高度依赖各级中层管理者。在一个跨文化、多语言的组织中，没有他们的支持，工作根本无从推进。

今天，AI有望从根本上重塑企业的层级结构。这一次，组织扁平化的设想或许真能照进现实。

AI直达信息源头

管理层级面临重塑

企业本质上是一套庞大的信息系统。中层管理的存在，是为了应对一个现实的信息传输难题：高管不可能读完公司的所有文件，也不可能与所有员工逐一沟通。但信息每经过一个层级，都可能发生损耗和失真。

AI可以绕过这道障碍，直接读取源头材料：会议记录、客服工单和共享文档。这些都是企业一直在产生、却未充分利用的“沉睡数据”。

如今，高管可以直接检索底层数据、查阅原始材料，将汇报摘要与实际工作相互核对，更全面、清楚地穿透企业真实的运营情况。

在零一万物，同事们把我使用的这套多智能体系统称为“开复的老板AI”。它接入了公司的全部记录和沟通信息。

有一次，老板AI发现，两个团队各自花了三个月开发同一项功能，甚至连犯的错误都一样，而此前竟无人察觉。

当信息传递与整合的成本骤降，主要承担这些职能的岗位，也将逐渐失去存在的意义。当AI让信息直达高层，管理者就需要拿出“传话”之外的价值。

对中层管理者来说，这听起来像是一份职业生涯完结的“讣告”。但换个角度看，它也是一则全新岗位的招聘启事。

接下来，越来越多的企业将精简管理层级，推动组织扁平化。组织顶层是高管团队，其下是直接责任人，即DRI（Directly Responsible Individual）。

每位DRI都要对一项结果从头到尾负责，无论是一款产品、一个市场，还是一项重大风险。在大型组织中，一部分中层管理者将转型为DRI，尤其是那些能快速适应各类新AI工具的人。

AI承担的工作越多

管理者的价值反而越大

随着管理层级的精简，中层管理者创造价值的方式也将改变。

AI智能体可以为合同定价，但驾驭AI，并为行动承担后果的管理者，依然会是企业的中坚力量。

层级可以减少，责任不能悬空。

AI时代，人的独特能力依然不可或缺。随着AI让日常任务的执行更快、成本更低，中层管理者将有更多时间作出判断、培养人才、处理复杂的人际关系。

谷歌的经验已经说明，过快推进组织扁平化，可能导致协作受阻、员工不满、高管心力交瘁。精简管理层级，不能一并抹去企业最宝贵的“组织记忆”。

资深管理者见过计划如何落空、经历过合作关系如何受损，也因此积累了来之不易的经验。他们能够将这些经验传给后来者。即使企业把大部分工作交给AI智能体，与其他部门、合作伙伴和客户的关系，依然需要人独有的经验和温度来维系。

AI承担的工作越多，管理者的价值就越突出。他们的工作重心将从监督执行，转向建立信任、维系关系，以及带领团队穿越不确定性。

这些人性独有的能力，从未像今天这样重要。

本文摘编翻译自《金融时报》（Financial Times），原文如下：

AI agents need middle managers too

When the cost of moving and reconciling corporate information collapses, the roles built to perform these functions must change

KAI-FU LEE

Back in 1958, two forward-thinking management scholars predicted in Harvard Business Review that computers would eliminate middle management by the 1980s. They were early and only half right. Computers automated many of the tasks that managers performed, but they never replaced the managers themselves.

In the early 2000s, Silicon Valley tried to engineer the “Great Flattening”. At Google, Larry Page soon found himself buried in expense reports and HR disputes. Managers were back within a few months. By the time I joined the company in 2005 to build its operations in China, I relied heavily on multiple layers of middle managers to get my job done. Working in a cross-cultural, multilingual organisation would not have been possible otherwise.

Today it is AI that is supposedly poised to fundamentally reshape the company hierarchy. This time it may work.

An organisation is, in effect, an information system. Middle management arose from necessity. No executive can read every company document and speak to every employee. But each level of communication can degrade the signal.

AI can skirt this problem by going straight to the source: meeting transcripts, support tickets and shared documents. This is the “dormant data” that companies have always produced but could not easily use. It is now accessible directly at the top, enabling radical visibility.

Executives can query underlying data, review source material and compare a summary with the work itself. At my company I have something my colleagues call “Kai-Fu’s Boss AI”, a system that connects to all corporate records and communications. I once watched Boss AI identify two teams that spent three months building the same feature, even repeating each other’s mistakes, without anyone noticing.

When the cost of moving and reconciling information collapses, the roles built to perform these functions will fade into irrelevance. For a middle manager, that may sound like an obituary. Read it differently and it is a job posting.

We are going to start to see more companies flattening their organisations with a shorter chain of command. At the top is the executive team. Below it are directly responsible individuals, or DRIs (a term Apple uses internally). Each one owns an outcome from beginning to end, such as a product, a market or a major risk. In large organisations, some middle managers will become DRIs, especially those who adapt quickly to a new fleet of AI tools.

What will change is the nature of a manager’s value. An AI agent can price a contract but managers who can direct their work and shoulder the consequences of their actions will remain central to their companies.

Human qualities are still required. As AI makes routine execution faster and cheaper, middle managers will have more time to exercise judgment, mentor people and navigate complex relationships.

As Google discovered, flattening too quickly can lead to frayed co-ordination, unhappy staff and burnt-out executives. It can also erase the most valuable institutional knowledge. Experienced managers can pass on the hard-won wisdom that comes from seeing past plans fail and relationships fray. Even when companies rely on AI agents to execute most of the work, relationships with other departments, partners and customers still depend on human-only skills.

The more work AI takes on, the greater the value of managers. Their roles will shift from overseeing execution to building trust, fostering relationships and guiding teams through uncertainty. Those skills have never mattered more.