market-research（市场研究）

Market Research & Competitive Analysis

Markets matter more than ideas. This skill helps you evaluate whether your market is worth entering — and how to validate demand before you build.

Core Principles

• A mediocre product in a great market beats a brilliant product in a dead one.
• All market sizing is wrong. The goal is order-of-magnitude clarity, not decimal precision.
• Competitors are evidence that demand exists. Zero competitors is a warning sign, not an advantage.
• The best solo-founder markets have high pain, fragmented incumbents, and willingness to pay — not the biggest TAM.
• Research is only useful if it changes a decision. Every analysis should end with a clear recommendation.

Early Validation: Before You Build Anything

Finding Your First 10 People to Talk To

Before doing market sizing, validate that real people have this problem.

Method 1: Cold Outreach (Fastest — 1-2 weeks)

• LinkedIn: Search for your ICP's job title → send connection request with a note
• Twitter/X: Search hashtags related to the problem → DM active posters
• Reddit: Find niche subreddits → comment helpfully → DM engaged users
• Email: Find company websites of target customers → reach out to founders/decision-makers

Cold outreach template:

Subject: Quick question about [problem area]

Hi [Name],

I'm researching how [ICP role] handles [specific problem]. I noticed you [signal that they have this problem — e.g., posted about it, work in relevant role, use a competing tool].

Would you be open to a 15-minute call this week? I'm not selling anything — just trying to understand the problem better before I build a solution.

Happy to share what I learn from the research as a thank you.

[Your name]

Method 2: Communities (Higher quality — 2-4 weeks)

• Indie Hackers: Search for threads where your ICP discusses the problem
• Facebook Groups: Search for niche groups (e.g., "Freelance Copywriters", "SaaS Founders")
• Slack communities: Industry-specific channels, FounderPath, etc.
• Discord: More engaged than most channels for technical audiences

Method 3: Landing Page Test (Lowest effort — 2-3 weeks)

1. Build a simple landing page describing the problem you solve (use Lovable or Claude Code)
2. Drive 100-200 visits via communities, social posts, or $100-200 in ads
3. Measure: Signups / Visitors = interest rate
4. Below 5% signup rate → positioning is unclear or demand is weak

After 5 Conversations, Ask Yourself

• Did 3+ people independently describe the same pain? → Demand likely real
• Would they pay? Did anyone name a price unprompted? → Market likely exists
• Do they already use 2+ workarounds? → Problem is acute
• Did you learn something that surprised you? → Explore it in conversations 6-10

Decision threshold:

• 3+ people confirm the problem AND 2+ say they'd pay → proceed to market sizing and build
• Mixed signals after 10 conversations → either pivot your hypothesis or try a different ICP segment
• Nobody cares after 10 conversations → this isn't a real problem. Pick a different idea.

Avoiding Analysis Paralysis

5 conversations reveal 80% of what you need to know. The other 20% you learn by building and shipping. Don't wait for certainty — it never comes.

Market Sizing (Napkin Math That Matters)

Tell AI:

Help me size the market for my SaaS idea:
- Product: [what it does]
- Target customer: [who — job title, company size, industry]
- Problem it solves: [the pain point]

Do a bottom-up calculation:
1. Estimate how many potential buyers exist (use industry data, LinkedIn job title counts)
2. Multiply by a realistic price point for this type of tool
3. Apply a 1-3% capture rate for a new entrant
4. Tell me: does this math support a solo-founder business ($200K-500K ARR)?

Bottom-Up (The Only Method That Matters for Solo Founders)

1. How many potential buyers exist?
   [Industry size] × [% that match your ICP]
   Example: 500,000 US marketing agencies × 12% that are 5-20 person = 60,000

2. What will each pay annually?
   [Price point] × [12 months]
   Example: $49/month × 12 = $588/year

3. Realistic addressable market:
   [Buyers] × [Annual price] × [Capture rate]
   Example: 60,000 × $588 × 2% = $705,600/year achievable

4. Sanity check: Does that number fund the business you want?
   Solo founder needs $200K-$500K ARR to replace income + reinvest.
   If max realistic capture is $100K, the market is too small.

Top-Down (Sanity Check Only)

TAM = Total market revenue (all possible buyers globally)
SAM = Segment you can serve (geography, vertical, size)
SOM = What you can realistically capture in 3 years

Rule of thumb: SOM is 1-5% of SAM for a new entrant.
If SOM doesn't fund your business, stop here.

Volume Estimation Sources

• Government data: Census Bureau, BLS (industry counts)
• Industry reports: IBISWorld, Statista (skim free summaries)
• LinkedIn: Search ICP job titles → count results
• Job boards: Volume of relevant roles = proxy for market size
• Competitor traffic: SimilarWeb free tier → estimate active users
• Subreddits/communities: Member counts = demand signal

Competitive Analysis

Tell AI:

Analyze the competitive landscape for my product:
- My product: [what it does]
- My target customer: [who]
- Known competitors: [list any you know, or "not sure"]

For each competitor, find: pricing, target audience, strengths, weaknesses
(check G2/Capterra reviews for complaints). Then build a 2x2 positioning
matrix showing where I could differentiate.

Substitute Mapping

Every product competes with four types:

1. Direct competitors — Same solution, same audience (Basecamp vs. Asana)
2. Indirect competitors — Different solution, same problem (spreadsheets vs. project tool)
3. DIY / manual process — They do it by hand (Post-its, email threads)
4. Do nothing — They tolerate the pain (this is your real enemy)

Competitor Research Template

For each direct competitor:

## [Competitor Name]

**What they do**: One sentence.
**Target audience**: Who they sell to.
**Pricing**: Tiers and price points.
**Strengths**: 2-3 things they do well.
**Weaknesses**: 2-3 gaps, complaints, or underserved areas.
**Positioning**: Homepage headline — how they describe themselves.
**Traffic/Scale**: Monthly visits (SimilarWeb), review count (G2/Capterra).

### Where You Win
What specific thing will you do 10x better?

Research Sources

• Pricing: Visit their pricing page. Screenshot it.
• Positioning: Read their homepage headline and subheadline.
• Weaknesses: G2, Capterra, Product Hunt, Reddit threads, Twitter complaints.
• Traffic: SimilarWeb (free tier).
• Features: Their docs/changelog reveal what they've built and haven't.
• Hiring: Job postings reveal strategic direction.

Competitive Positioning Matrix

Build a 2×2 matrix with the two dimensions your ICP cares most about:

Example axes:
  X: Simple ←————→ Powerful
  Y: Cheap  ←————→ Premium

Plot competitors on this grid. Find the empty quadrant. That's your positioning opportunity.

Solo-Founder Market Fit Assessment

Score each criterion 1-5. Minimum viable total: 25/40.

Scoring:

• 35-40: Exceptional fit. Move fast.
• 25-34: Viable. Validate the weak spots.
• Below 25: Reconsider. Weak markets kill good products.

Distribution Vector Analysis

Rule: Pick the ONE channel you can test in <30 days with <$500. Prove it works before diversifying.

Buyer Leverage Check

Confirm your ICP can actually buy:

1. Controls budget? If they need 3 levels of approval, you lose.
2. Below "just expense it" threshold? ($50-100/mo for individuals, $500-1K for teams)
3. Can adopt without IT? Self-serve SaaS with optional SSO wins.
4. Low switching cost? If migration takes weeks, adoption stalls.
5. One person gets value alone? Network effects help growth but hurt initial adoption.

All five should be "yes" for a solo-founder SaaS.

Common Mistakes

Related Skills

• validate — Test demand after market research confirms opportunity
• customer-research — Go deeper with customer interviews and personas
• prioritize — Use market research to prioritize what to build
• pricing — Use competitive analysis to inform pricing decisions