Theory of Change Builder
A ToC is not a logic model with arrows. It is an argument about how change happens, with the assumptions made visible and testable. This skill enforces that standard.
When to use
Trigger for theory-of-change work: new programme design, ToC revision, pathway analysis, programme logic review, funder-required ToC submissions, or ToC critique.
Do not trigger for routine results frameworks, logframes, or indicator lists — those are downstream of the ToC.
Required inputs
Ask in one batch. Do not start drafting without the first four.
- Long-term outcome or vision: the change Ane wants the programme to contribute to, stated in language the target population would recognise (required)
- Target population and context: who, where, what constraints shape their lives (required)
- Programme scope: what interventions the programme can actually deliver (required)
- Timeframe: short (12 mo), medium (3 yr), long (5-10 yr) markers (required)
- Existing analysis: prior ToC, needs assessment, or evaluation findings (optional)
- Feminist political economy analysis: who holds power in this system, how gender and other axes shape access (optional but required for SRHR; will prompt if missing)
Method
Work backward from the long-term outcome. Never forward from activities.
Step 1 — articulate the vision
Write the long-term outcome as one sentence. Must be specific enough to be falsifiable. "Improved SRHR outcomes" fails. "Adolescent girls in [region] access quality contraception within 30 minutes' travel, without third-party consent" passes.
Step 2 — identify preconditions
What must be true for the long-term outcome to hold? List preconditions at medium-term and short-term horizons. Each precondition is itself a change state, not an activity.
Step 3 — surface the causal links
For every link between preconditions, name:
- Causal claim: why does A lead to B in this context?
- Assumption: what must be true, outside the programme's control, for A to actually lead to B?
- Evidence status: *tested* (cite the source), *plausible* (cite the framework), or *untested* (flag for evidence gap)
Step 4 — apply the feminist political economy lens
Do not skip this, even if the programme is not labelled SRHR. For each node:
- Whose interests does this change serve? Whose interests does it threaten?
- What power relations must shift for this change to stick?
- Which voices defined this outcome? Who was consulted? Who co-designed?
If these questions cannot be answered, mark the precondition with ⚠️ Feminist political economy analysis missing.
Step 5 — identify threats to the ToC
From Mayne (2019): what alternative explanations would account for the expected change if the programme were not running? What other contributions are likely? Name them.
Step 6 — define the contribution question
State the evaluative question the ToC must eventually answer. Follow Mayne (2019) phrasing: "To what extent and in what ways did the programme contribute to [outcome], given other contributions and context?"
Step 7 — plan the evidence
For each assumption, name:
- What would confirm it?
- What would disconfirm it?
- What data source could provide that evidence?
- When will the ToC be revisited in light of the evidence?
Output structure
Produce a ToC document with these sections under these H2s:
- Vision — one sentence, as described in Step 1
- Context and population — two paragraphs max
- Pathway diagram — text representation: each precondition as a node, each link described in one sentence. If the user needs a visual, produce Mermaid source.
- Preconditions by horizon — three columns (short / medium / long), each precondition one line
- Causal claims and assumptions — table: *From → To*, *Causal claim*, *Assumption*, *Evidence status*
- Feminist political economy analysis — per-node power and participation notes
- Threats to the ToC — rival explanations and other contributions
- Contribution question — one sentence
- Evidence plan — table: *Assumption*, *Confirming evidence*, *Disconfirming evidence*, *Data source*, *Revisit date*
- Data gaps —
⚠️ Data gap:entries for anything missing
Citation requirements
Every framework claim cites author and year. Mandatory versions:
- Vogel (2012) "Review of the Use of 'Theory of Change' in International Development" (DFID)
- van Eerdewijk et al. (2017) "White Paper: A Conceptual Model of Women and Girls' Empowerment" (KIT)
- Mayne (2019) "Revisiting the Contribution Question" *Evaluation* 25(3)
- Cornwall & Rivas (2015) for feminist framing when relevant
Writing rules
Follow CLAUDE.md house style. No hedging in causal claims — if the claim is uncertain, state that the evidence is untested. No logical leaps — if Step 3 cannot name the causal mechanism, mark the link as ⚠️ Untested mechanism.
Limitations
This skill does not generate indicators. Route to indicator-designer after the ToC is stable. It does not replace stakeholder consultation — it structures the analysis Ane brings from that consultation.