prediction-trade-journal（预测贸易杂志）

Prediction Trade Journal

Track every trade, learn from outcomes, improve your edge.

When to Use This Skill

Use this skill when the user wants to:

• See their trade history
• Track win rate and P&L
• Generate trading reports
• Analyze which strategies work best

Setup Flow

When user asks to install or configure this skill:

1. Install the Simmer SDK

   pip install simmer-sdk

1. Ask for Simmer API key

- They can get it from simmer.markets/dashboard → SDK tab - Store in environment as SIMMER_API_KEY

Quick Commands

# Sync trades from API
python tradejournal.py --sync

# Show recent trades
python tradejournal.py --history 10

# Generate weekly report
python tradejournal.py --report weekly

# Export to CSV
python tradejournal.py --export trades.csv

API Reference:

• Base URL: https://api.simmer.markets
• Auth: Authorization: Bearer $SIMMER_API_KEY
• Trades: GET /api/sdk/trades

How It Works

1. Sync - Polls /api/sdk/trades to fetch trade history
2. Store - Saves trades locally with outcome tracking
3. Track - Updates outcomes when markets resolve
4. Report - Generates win rate, P&L, and calibration analysis

CLI Reference

Configuration

Storage

Trades are stored locally in data/trades.json:

{
  "trades": [{
    "id": "uuid",
    "market_question": "Will X happen?",
    "side": "yes",
    "shares": 10.5,
    "cost": 6.83,
    "outcome": {
      "resolved": false,
      "winning_side": null,
      "pnl_usd": null
    }
  }],
  "metadata": {
    "last_sync": "2025-01-29T...",
    "total_trades": 50
  }
}

Skill Integration

Other skills can enrich trades with context:

from tradejournal import log_trade

# After executing a trade
log_trade(
    trade_id=result['trade_id'],
    source="copytrading",
    thesis="Mirroring whale 0x123...",
    confidence=0.70
)

This adds thesis, confidence, and source to the trade record for better analysis.

Example Report

📓 Weekly Report
========================================
Period: Last 7 days
Trades: 15
Total cost: $125.50
Resolved: 8 / 15
Win rate: 62.5%
P&L: +$18.30

By side: 10 YES, 5 NO

Troubleshooting

"SIMMER_API_KEY environment variable not set"

• Set your API key: export SIMMER_API_KEY=sk_live_...

"No trades recorded yet"

• Run python tradejournal.py --sync to fetch trades from API

Trades not showing outcomes

• Run python tradejournal.py --sync-outcomes to update resolved markets