- id
- einstein-research-ftd
- name
- Follow-Through Day (FTD) Detector
- description
- Detects Follow-Through Day (FTD) signals for market bottom confirmation using William O'Neil's methodology. Dual-index tracking (S&P 500 + NASDAQ) with state machine for rally attempt, FTD qualification, and post-FTD health monitoring. Use when user asks about market bottom signals, follow-through days, rally attempts, re-entry timing after corrections, or whether it's safe to increase equity exposure. Complementary to market-top-detector (defensive) - this skill is offensive (bottom confirmation).
- version
- 1.0.0
- author
- DaVinci
- last_amended_at
- null
- trigger_patterns
- []
- pre_conditions
- git_repo_required
- false
- tools_available
- []
- expected_output_format
- natural_language
Follow-Through Day (FTD) Detector
Goal Chain: L0 Medici Enterprises → L1 Einstein Research → L2 Market Timing
Purpose
Detects Follow-Through Day (FTD) signals for market bottom confirmation using William O'Neil's methodology. This skill helps identify when it's safer to increase equity exposure after a market correction. It is the offensive counterpart to the defensive market-top-detector skill.
How It Works
This skill implements a state machine that tracks the S&P 500 (SPY) and NASDAQ (QQQ) for signs of a market bottom.
State Machine:
- Correction: The market is in a downtrend. The skill is looking for a potential bottom.
- Rally Attempt: A significant up-day occurs after a new low, initiating a "rally attempt". The skill starts a day count.
- FTD Watch: Between days 4 and 10 of the rally attempt, the skill looks for a Follow-Through Day.
- FTD Confirmed: A valid FTD occurs. The market is considered to be in a "confirmed uptrend".
- Post-FTD Monitoring: The skill monitors the health of the confirmed uptrend for signs of failure (e.g., immediate sharp reversals).
FTD Rules (O'Neil Methodology)
- Rally Attempt Start (Day 1): The index closes higher after a new low, or holds above the low for a second day.
- FTD Qualification (Day 4-10): A major index (SPY or QQQ) must close up >1.5% on higher volume than the previous day.
- Confirmation: Both SPY and QQQ should ideally confirm the FTD within a day or two of each other for the strongest signal.
- Failure: An FTD is considered failed if the index undercuts the low of the rally attempt day.
Usage
This skill is run via a CLI tool, typically as part of a daily market analysis cron job.
# Run the FTD analysis for the latest market data
einstein-research ftd
# Output (example)
{
"status": "FTD_CONFIRMED",
"details": "Follow-Through Day confirmed on 2026-03-14 for SPY.",
"spy": {
"state": "FTD_CONFIRMED",
"rally_attempt_start_date": "2026-03-10",
"day_count": 5,
"ftd_date": "2026-03-14",
"ftd_price_change_pct": 1.8,
"ftd_volume_change_pct": 25.1
},
"qqq": {
"state": "FTD_WATCH",
"rally_attempt_start_date": "2026-03-11",
"day_count": 4,
"ftd_date": null
},
"recommendation": "Market in confirmed uptrend. Consider increasing equity exposure cautiously. Monitor for confirmation on QQQ."
}Data Sources
- yfinance: Daily OHLCV data for SPY and QQQ.
- Local Cache: Data is cached locally to avoid redundant downloads.
Integration
- Daily Cron: Run
einstein-research ftdafter market close each day. - Alerting: If
statuschanges toRALLY_ATTEMPTorFTD_CONFIRMED, send a notification to Omer. - DaVinciOS Dashboard: The output of this skill can be used to update a market-timing indicator on the main dashboard.
When to Use
- After a market correction of 10% or more.
- When looking for a signal to start buying stocks again.
- To confirm if a recent market bounce has strength.
This skill should be used in conjunction with other indicators (like market breadth, sentiment, and the market-top-detector) for a complete picture.