commodity-macro-signal（大宗商品宏观信号）

Commodity Macro Signal

Analyze global commodity markets to extract macro signals for inflation, growth, and supply chain dynamics using free-tier Finskills API data. Covers energy (crude oil, natural gas), precious metals (gold, silver), industrial metals (copper), agricultural products, and FRED/IMF commodity indices — then synthesizes investment implications across asset classes.

Setup

API Key required — Register at https://finskills.net to get your free key. Header: X-API-Key: <your_api_key>

Get your API key: Register at https://finskills.net — free tier available, Pro plan unlocks real-time quotes, history, and financials.

When to Activate This Skill

Activate when the user:

• Asks about oil, gold, copper, natural gas, silver, or agricultural commodity prices
• Wants to understand what rising/falling commodity prices mean for markets
• Asks "is this inflationary or deflationary?"
• Wants a commodity-driven macro analysis
• Asks about Dr. Copper, gold/silver ratio, oil equity ratio
• Wants to know how commodities affect specific sectors (energy, materials, airlines, etc.)

Data Retrieval — Finskills API Calls

1. All Commodity Spot Prices (Snapshot)

GET https://finskills.net/v1/free/commodity/prices

Extract the full commodity price dashboard:

• Energy: crude_oil_wti, crude_oil_brent, natural_gas, heating_oil, gasoline
• Metals: gold, silver, platinum, copper, aluminum, iron_ore
• Agricultural: corn, wheat, soybeans, coffee, cotton, sugar

2. Individual Commodity History (for trend analysis)

For key commodities, fetch 1-year daily history:

GET https://finskills.net/v1/free/commodity/history/{symbol}

Target symbols: WTI (crude oil), gold, copper, natgas, wheat Extract: date, price, change

3. FRED Commodity Data Series

GET https://finskills.net/v1/free/commodity/fred

Lists all available FRED commodity series.

GET https://finskills.net/v1/free/commodity/fred/{seriesId}

Key series to pull:

• DCOILWTICO: WTI Crude Oil Daily Price
• GOLDAMGBD228NLBM: Gold Price Daily
• PCOPPUSDM: Copper Price Monthly
• TERMCBPER24NS: Not applicable — use commodity endpoint instead

4. IMF Commodity Index

GET https://finskills.net/v1/free/commodity/imf

Extract: IMF primary commodity price index (energy, metals, food sub-indices) Use for: broad commodity cycle positioning (secular bull/bear)

Analysis Workflow

Step 1 — Commodity Price Dashboard

Create a snapshot of all key commodities with direction signals:

For each commodity, classify:

• Near-term trend (1-month): using price change % from history
• Medium-term trend (3-month): using price change % from history
• Annual trend (1-year): YTD change

Direction = {RALLYING ↑ / FALLING ↓ / FLAT ~} based on 1M change

Step 2 — Key Macro Signal Derivation

Oil Price Signal (Economic Activity + Inflation):

• WTI > $90/bbl: Demand or supply-driven? Check supply context

- Demand-driven high prices (global growth): Bullish for equities (especially energy, materials) - Supply-constriction high prices (OPEC cut): Stagflationary (bad for most assets)

• WTI $60–$90: Normal regime, not a major headwind
• WTI < $60: Disinflation signal; positive for airlines, transport, consumer discretionary

Gold Signal (Safe Haven + Real Rate Indicator): Gold is inversely correlated with real interest rates (nominal rate - inflation expectations):

• Gold rising while rates rising: Unusual strength → fear of financial crisis or dollar weakness
• Gold rising while rates stable/falling: Real rates falling → inflationary signal
• Gold falling while rates rising: Normal correlation → risk-on, growth regime

Gold/Silver Ratio:

Gold_Silver_Ratio = gold_price / silver_price

• Ratio > 80: Economic uncertainty, risk-off (gold outperforms industrial silver)
• Ratio < 60: Industrial demand strong, economic expansion (silver outperforms)

Copper Signal ("Dr. Copper" — Economic Barometer):

• Copper rising: Global manufacturing expansion, China construction activity strong
• Copper falling: Global slowdown signal, watch emerging markets
• Copper/Gold Ratio: Rising ratio → economic growth; Falling → risk-off

Copper_Gold_Ratio = copper_price (in cents/lb) / gold_price (in $/oz)

When ratio rises: Yields typically follow — confirms growth regime When ratio falls: Deflationary forces at work

Natural Gas Signal (Seasonal + Domestic):

• Winter: High nat gas = positive for utilities, LNG exporters, coal substitution
• Summer: High nat gas = heat wave demand; positive for utilities

Agricultural Commodities Signal (Food Inflation):

• Wheat > $7/bushel: Food inflation pressure, CPI food component rising
• Corn, Soy: Input cost for livestock, ethanol, food processing

Step 3 — Commodity Cycle Classification

Classify the current phase of the commodity super-cycle:

Assign to current phase based on: direction of multiple commodity prices + interest rate environment.

Step 4 — Asset Class Implications Matrix

Based on commodity signals, generate implications for asset classes:

Step 5 — Sector-Level Impact

Map to specific equity sectors:

• Energy (XLE): Directly correlated with WTI crude
• Materials (XLB): Copper, aluminum, iron ore, potash
• Industrials (XLI): Broad commodity demand signal
• Consumer Staples (XLP): Wheat, corn, sugar as input costs
• Consumer Discretionary (XLY): Gasoline price as consumer purchasing power headwind
• Utilities (XLU): Natural gas as fuel input cost
• Airlines: Jet fuel (kerosene, highly correlated to crude) as major cost
• Miners/Gold stocks (GDX): Gold and silver price leverage

Output Format

╔══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╗
║    COMMODITY MACRO SIGNAL REPORT  —  {DATE}                 ║
╚══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╝

🛢️  ENERGY
  WTI Crude Oil:   ${price}/bbl   {+/-}%  1M  {+/-}%  3M  {+/-}%  YTD
  Brent Crude:     ${price}/bbl   {+/-}%  1M
  Natural Gas:     ${price}/MMBtu {+/-}%  1M
  Gasoline:        ${price}/gal   {+/-}%  1M
  Oil Signal:  →  {DEMAND-DRIVEN SURGE / SUPPLY CUT SURGE / NORMAL RANGE / DEFLATIONARY DROP}

🥇 PRECIOUS METALS
  Gold:     ${price}/oz    {+/-}%  1M  {+/-}%  3M  {+/-}%  YTD
  Silver:   ${price}/oz    {+/-}%  1M
  Platinum: ${price}/oz    {+/-}%  1M
  Gold/Silver Ratio: {ratio:.1f}  →  {RISK-OFF / NORMAL / RISK-ON}
  Gold Signal: →  {SAFE HAVEN DEMAND / REAL RATES FALLING / NORMAL}

⚙️  INDUSTRIAL METALS ("Dr. Copper")
  Copper:   ${price}¢/lb   {+/-}%  1M  {+/-}%  3M
  Aluminum: ${price}/ton   {+/-}%  1M
  Iron Ore: ${price}/ton   {+/-}%  1M
  Copper/Gold Ratio: {ratio:.4f}  →  {Growth signal rising / Declining = risk-off}
  Industrial Signal: →  {EXPANSION / SLOWING / CONTRACTION}

🌾 AGRICULTURAL
  Corn:    ${price}/bu     {+/-}%  1M
  Wheat:   ${price}/bu     {+/-}%  1M
  Soybeans:${price}/bu     {+/-}%  1M
  Coffee:  ${price}¢/lb    {+/-}%  1M
  Agri Signal: →  {FOOD INFLATION PRESSURE / STABLE / DEFLATIONARY}

📊 IMF COMMODITY INDICES
  IMF All Commodities:  {index}  {+/-}%  3M
  IMF Energy Sub-Index: {index}  {+/-}%  3M
  IMF Metals Index:     {index}  {+/-}%  3M
  IMF Food Index:       {index}  {+/-}%  3M
  Cycle Phase: →  {EARLY BULL / MIDDLE BULL / LATE BULL / EARLY BEAR / LATE BEAR}

💡 MACRO SYNTHESIS
  Inflationary pressure:   {HIGH / MODERATE / LOW}
  Growth signal:           {EXPANSION / MIXED / CONTRACTION}
  USD implication:         {BEARISH on USD / NEUTRAL / BULLISH on USD}

📈 ASSET CLASS IMPLICATIONS
  OVERWEIGHT:   {asset classes and sectors benefiting from current commodity signals}
  UNDERWEIGHT:  {asset classes hurt by current commodity signals}

  Sector Playbook:
    Energy (XLE):       {↑ Strong tailwind / → Neutral / ↓ Headwind}
    Materials (XLB):    {↑ / → / ↓}
    Industrials (XLI):  {↑ / → / ↓}
    Airlines:           {↑ / → / ↓}
    Consumer:           {↑ / → / ↓}
    Gold Miners (GDX):  {↑ / → / ↓}

🔍 KEY SIGNAL TO WATCH
  {The one commodity ratio or indicator that best captures current macro regime transition,
   and what a move above/below X level would imply for portfolio positioning.}

Limitations

• Commodity spot prices may lag physical markets by 1 business day.
• Supply-driven vs. demand-driven price changes require judgment — always consider news context.
• Agricultural commodity prices are highly seasonal and weather-dependent.
• The copper/gold ratio as a growth signal works best over multi-month periods, not day-to-day.