amazon-price-history（亚马逊价格历史记录）

Amazon Price History Tracker

Track Amazon product price history, identify pricing patterns, and time your pricing decisions with precision. Alternative to Keepa for sellers who want AI-assisted price analysis.

Paste product data, price snapshots, or competitor pricing. The agent builds price timelines, detects patterns, and recommends optimal pricing windows.

Commands

price add <asin> <price> [date]   # log a price data point
price trend <asin>                # analyze price trend direction
price pattern <asin>              # detect seasonal and cyclical patterns
price alert set <asin> <target>   # set alert for target price threshold
price compare <asin1> <asin2>     # compare pricing histories side-by-side
price best-time <asin>            # identify best time window to raise/lower price
price volatility <asin>           # compute price stability score
price chart <asin>                # render text-based price chart
price report <asin>               # full pricing analysis report
price save                        # save all price history to workspace

What Data to Provide

• ASIN + price data — current or historical prices with dates
• Buy Box price — the winning price you see on the listing
• Competitor prices — other sellers on the same listing
• Your cost structure — COGS, FBA fees, target margin
• Seasonal context — any known promotions or peak periods

Price Analysis Framework

Price Data Points to Track

For each ASIN, capture:

Date | Price | Seller | Buy Box? | Coupon | Sale Event | Notes
2024-01-15 | $29.99 | Brand | Yes | 10% off | None | Normal
2024-01-20 | $24.99 | Brand | Yes | None | Flash sale | -17%
2024-02-01 | $32.99 | Brand | Yes | None | None | Post-sale

Price Trend Classification

Uptrend (Price rising):

• Average price this month > last month by >5%
• Signal: possible demand increase, supply constraints, or brand repositioning
• Seller action: monitor for opportunity to raise your price

Downtrend (Price falling):

• Average price this month < last month by >5%
• Signal: increased competition, excess inventory, or market correction
• Seller action: evaluate your cost floor, avoid race-to-bottom

Stable (±5% range):

• Price within 5% of 90-day average
• Signal: mature market equilibrium
• Seller action: compete on other factors (listing quality, reviews, ads)

Volatile (Frequent swings >10%):

• Price swings more than 10% within 30 days
• Signal: heavy promotional activity or multiple sellers competing
• Seller action: dynamic repricing is essential

Price Volatility Score

Volatility = (Max Price - Min Price) / Average Price × 100

Score 0-10:   Very stable — predictable market
Score 10-25:  Moderate — some promotional activity
Score 25-50:  Volatile — heavy competition or frequent sales
Score 50+:    Highly volatile — use dynamic repricing or avoid

Seasonal Pattern Detection

Map price history against calendar events:

• Q4 (Oct-Dec): Holiday surge — premium pricing possible
• Prime Day (July): Deep discounts expected, plan inventory
• Back to School (Aug-Sep): Category-specific peaks
• Valentine's/Mother's Day: Gift category spikes
• Post-holiday (Jan-Feb): Price depression, clear inventory

Buy Box Price Analysis

The Buy Box price matters more than list price:

• Track who holds the Buy Box at each snapshot
• Compute your price gap vs. current Buy Box winner
• Identify patterns in Buy Box rotation (if multiple sellers)

Buy Box pricing rules:

• New seller entering: typically prices 5-10% below current winner
• FBA advantage: can price slightly higher than FBM and still win
• Low inventory: Buy Box may shift to higher-priced seller

Price Alert Thresholds

PRICE DROP ALERT:   Current price falls >10% below 30-day average
PRICE SPIKE ALERT:  Current price rises >20% above 30-day average
BUY BOX LOST:       Your price is no longer the Buy Box winner
COMPETITOR ENTRY:   New seller appears at significantly lower price
FLOOR ALERT:        Price drops below your calculated margin floor

Optimal Repricing Windows

Based on historical patterns:

• Best time to raise price: After a competitor goes out of stock
• Best time to lower price: 2 weeks before Prime Day to boost velocity
• Avoid repricing: During major sale events (prices stabilize after)
• Post-holiday: Expect 15-25% price compression, plan ahead

Margin Floor Calculation

Margin Floor = COGS + FBA Fees + Referral Fee + PPC Cost + Minimum Profit
Example:
  COGS:          $8.00
  FBA fees:      $4.50
  Referral (15%): price × 0.15
  PPC cost:      $2.00
  Min profit:    $2.00
  Floor = $8 + $4.50 + (price × 0.15) + $2 + $2 = solve for price
  Minimum price = ($16.50) / (1 - 0.15) = $19.41

Workspace

Creates ~/price-tracker/ containing:

• history/ — price logs per ASIN (ASIN.md files)
• alerts/ — triggered price alerts
• patterns/ — seasonal pattern analysis
• reports/ — full pricing reports

Output Format

Every price analysis outputs:

1. Price Timeline Table — chronological price history with key events marked
2. Trend Direction — current trend with confidence level
3. Volatility Score — 0-100 stability rating with interpretation
4. Pattern Summary — detected seasonal or cyclical patterns
5. Optimal Price Window — recommended price and timing
6. Margin Check — current price vs. your floor, profit per unit