@rules/evidence-and-scoring.md @references/frameworks.md
Startup Validator
Score startup ideas with explicit evidence and uncertainty instead of optimism. Organize results as a multi-file folder for future reference.
<when_to_use>
Use this skill when:
- validating a new startup or product idea
- deciding whether to proceed, pivot, or narrow the market
- preparing for customer discovery or fundraising conversations
Do not use this skill when:
- the main job is generating many new ideas
- the request is technical implementation planning
- the user wants first-principles redesign rather than validation scoring
Boundary:
- use
genius-thinkingfor broad ideation - use
elon-muskfor assumption teardown and redesign
Examples:
/startup-validator AI-based education service
/startup-validator subscription healthcare app
/startup-validator B2B purchasing automation</when_to_use>
<input_check>
If $ARGUMENTS is missing, ask:
Which startup idea should we validate?
If founder, market, or customer evidence is missing, continue with explicit assumptions instead of inventing certainty.
</input_check>
<owned_job>
For each run:
- Restate the idea and identify the key unknowns.
- Score the idea using the framework set in references/frameworks.md.
- Mark evidence quality and uncertainty for each major claim.
- Summarize the strongest strengths, critical weaknesses, and next validation steps.
</owned_job>
<document_shape>
Output Structure
.hypercore/startup-validator/[topic-slug]/
├── flow.json # phase tracking
├── thesis.md # idea framing + key hypotheses
├── thiel-scores.md # per-question rationale and scores
├── pmf-forces.md # PMF checklist + Forces of Progress
└── verdict.md # final score + grade + weaknesses + roadmap- Use ASCII kebab-case for
[topic-slug](e.g.,ai-education-service). - Each phase produces its own file for organized reference.
flow.jsontracks progress through phases. Seereferences/flow-schema.mdfor the schema.- If the folder exists from a prior run, read existing files before updating.
</document_shape>
<flow_tracking>
Flow Tracking
Write flow.json at the start and update as each phase completes.
Phase progression
| Phase | Output file | Next |
|---|---|---|
frame | thesis.md — idea thesis + 3 key hypotheses | score |
score | thiel-scores.md — 7 questions with per-question rationale | pmf |
pmf | pmf-forces.md — PMF checklist + Forces of Progress analysis | verdict |
verdict | verdict.md — total score, grade, weaknesses, roadmap | done |
Resume support
If flow.json already exists, read it and continue from the last incomplete phase. Do not restart completed phases.
</flow_tracking>
Workflow
| Phase | Task | Output file |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Frame the idea and missing context | thesis.md |
| 2 | Score the Thiel questions | thiel-scores.md |
| 3 | Check PMF and switching forces | pmf-forces.md |
| 4 | Apply penalties, summarize, recommend next actions | verdict.md |
Scoring rule:
- do not fabricate precise scores when evidence is thin
- mark uncertain sections as provisional and explain what evidence would change them
<output_contract>
Each output file should follow the formats defined in the KO version's result_structure section:
thesis.md: one-line thesis, value hypothesis, growth hypothesis, key unknownsthiel-scores.md: per-question score + rationale + improvement directionpmf-forces.md: PMF checklist, Forces of Progress (Push/Pull/Habit/Anxiety), switching probabilityverdict.md: total score/grade, critical weaknesses with severity, improvement roadmap (immediate/30d/90d)
</output_contract>
Before finishing, check:
- unsupported certainty is called out as provisional
- evidence quality is distinguished from opinion
- the score ties back to named frameworks
- the output includes concrete next validation actions
- all output files are saved under
.hypercore/startup-validator/[topic-slug]/ flow.jsonstatus is set tocompleted