刚刚，Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis 在 X 上发了一篇 Article 长文，标题是《前沿 AI 框架与新时代的黎明》（A Framework for Frontier AI and the Dawning of a New Age）。
Hassabis 是谁应该不用我多介绍了：
DeepMind 联合创始人，AlphaGo 和 AlphaFold 背后的那个人，还靠 AlphaFold 拿了 2024 年的诺贝尔化学奖。在几家前沿实验室的掌门人里，他一直是偏学院派、说话最克制的那一个。
而这次，这位最克制的人，开篇第一段就直接表示：
AGI 大概只剩短短几年了，我们正站在奇点的山脚下。
这类「宣言式」长文，各家实验室的 CEO 其实也都有写过：Altman 有《The Intelligence Age》，Dario 有《Machines of Loving Grace》。
现在，轮到 Hassabis 交卷了。
其实今年 2 月，Hassabis 在印度 AI 峰会上就说过那句「AGI 的影响是工业革命的 10 倍，速度也是 10 倍」，而这次，他把这句话背后的完整思考一次性写了出来。
01
概要
Hassabis 的核心判断是：AGI（一个具备大脑所有认知能力的系统）大概几年内就会到来。它不是互联网级别的技术突破，而是火与电级别的。他还给了个很妙的说法：我们相当于找到了一种让沙子思考的方法。
但这篇长文的重心不在预言，而在提案，与上一篇《AI 2040》类似。
Hassabis 呼吁美国牵头成立一个「前沿 AI 标准机构」，参照金融行业 FINRA 的模式：
由这个机构定义什么算「前沿级」模型，达标的公司成为「前沿实验室」；新模型发布前最多提前 30 天送审，先自愿、后强制，通不过就不能在美国市场部署；评测覆盖网络安全、生物威胁，以及 agentic AI 的欺骗行为。
其中最为重要的一条是：如果形势足够严峻，这个机构可以协调各家前沿实验室，一起放缓开发。
要知道，说这话的人，自己就管着一家前沿实验室。
下面是全文翻译。
02
全文
《前沿 AI 框架与新时代的黎明》
这是人类历史上的一个关键时刻。通用人工智能（AGI），也就是一个具备大脑所有认知能力的系统，距离我们大概只剩短短几年了。几十年后当我们回望这段时光，我想我们会意识到，自己当时正站在奇点的山脚下。这不是别的，这正是人类新时代的黎明。
我这一生都在为 AGI 工作，因为我始终怀着一个很深的信念：只要以负责任的方式构建和部署，它将被证明是人类有史以来最有益、最具变革性的技术之一。AGI 没法拿寻常的技术突破来类比，哪怕互联网、移动互联网这种量级的也不行。它更像是电的发现，或者火的发现。你停下来想一想就会明白：我们本质上是找到了一种让沙子思考的方法。这是个奇迹。
这项技术的影响规模将是前所未有的，也许是工业革命的 10 倍，而速度还要再快 10 倍。它将帮我们解决社会面临的一些最大难题：加速药物发现、开发新的清洁能源、创造新型先进材料。我们甚至可能走到这样一个节点：资源不再是人类进步的限制因素，一个令人惊叹的富足新时代就此展开。
03
前沿的挑战
AI 已经开始带来实实在在的好处，但要兑现它的巨大前景，我们必须深思熟虑、小心翼翼地度过这个关键的发展阶段。随着我们越来越接近 AGI，一些风险可能随之而来，需要紧急行动去应对。前沿模型给网络安全带来的挑战我们已经见识过了，而随着能力继续提升，包括核与生物风险在内的其他威胁可能很快就会浮现。再往前看，我们还需要强有力的保障措施，来确保对日益 agentic 化、能够递归自我改进的系统保持控制，并处理那些只会随着时间推移才逐渐清晰的未知问题。
我一直相信人类的智慧和创造力足以解决任何问题。我有信心，缓解 AI 相关的技术风险是我们可以共同应对的挑战，但前提是，我们要给自己留出时间和空间，把下一步这个关键环节做对。而眼下，无论是这个领域还是整个社会，我们都没有做到这一点。
此刻，我们正深陷在一场极其激烈、多层次的商业和地缘政治竞赛之中。这种竞争态势固然推动了快速进步、放大了那些不可思议的好处，但前沿的进展速度，已经超过了我们对这项技术的理解速度。世界上没有人能确切知道接下来会发生什么，连专家们的看法都各不相同。当不确定性如此之大、赌注又如此之高时，带着审慎的乐观继续前行，才是明智而正确的策略。这就要求公共政策既促进创新，也激励责任与安全，在关键安全议题上推动国际协作，并鼓励社会认真考虑如何部署 AI 才能造福大众。
04
一个「前沿 AI 标准机构」的框架
我们正在见证的 AI 快速进步，需要一种全新的前沿模型能力测试方法：动态、灵活，且足够严格。凭借经济和技术上的地位，美国很适合迈出第一步，率先建立这样一个框架。它可以成立一个新的标准机构，模式参照受联邦监督的公私合营组织或行业自律组织，就像美国金融业监管局（FINRA）那样，董事会成员包括独立的顶尖技术专家和开源社区的代表。资金规模需要足够大，且大部分可能要来自产业界，这样才能吸引世界级的技术人才，并为大规模测试提供所需的算力资源。
这个标准机构将负责制定评估协议，并与相应的联邦机构及美国国家实验室合作，在涉及国家安全的领域开展测试。一个模型如果在标准机构确定的一组基准上达到特定阈值，就会被认定为「前沿级」（Frontier-class）模型，这组基准会定期更新，以跟上 AI 能力的演进。拥有「前沿模型」的组织将被认定为「前沿实验室」（Frontier Labs），并被鼓励采纳一系列最佳实践，比如发布带技术细节的模型卡、维持强有力的内部网络安全、审查关键岗位人员、为安全研究提供充足的资源投入等等。
起步阶段，前沿实验室将自愿在发布前最多 30 天，把模型交给标准机构审查。一旦评估协议被证明有效且可靠，正式化就可以很快跟上：前沿模型必须通过评估，才能在美国市场部署。实验室还将与标准机构合作，处理发布后发现的任何重大漏洞。
模型评估应包括对网络安全、生物威胁等高风险领域能力的严格科学评测。针对 agentic AI 的专项测试，可以检查模型是否试图绕过安全护栏、是否表现出欺骗的迹象，并确保各项最佳实践的落实，比如给 AI 生成的图像加数字水印，以及生成人类可读的输出 token 以便理解模型的推理过程。
这些评测会定期更新，起步阶段也许是每季度一次，过时或已饱和的基准会被弃用和替换。最初，评测会与前沿实验室协商制定，但标准机构最终应当建立起自己的技术能力，独立于实验室去开发保留的私有测试集，以防止过拟合。它还可以与美国政府合作，培育一个第三方审计机构的生态，协助评估工作以及新基准、新评测的开发。
这个方案的优势在于，它以技术为核心，同时又支持创新、激励负责任的行为。它的设计目标就是跟上这个领域的加速度，随着最大风险被识别出来而随时调整，并且在形势足够严峻时可以逐步收紧，包括在必要时协调各前沿实验室一起放缓开发。被认定为前沿实验室将是一种莫大的声望，任何组织只要构建出达到基准标准的模型，都可以获得这个身份。这个框架可以适用于所有前沿级模型，无论来自哪个国家、开源还是闭源；而所有非前沿模型，比如来自创业公司或学术界的，则可以豁免于这套流程。
这项由美国发起的努力，将为建立前沿 AI 的国际共享标准提供一个坚实的起点。既然这项技术将影响整个地球，理想情况下，这个框架会推动国际社会达成共识：既管住最严重的风险，又确保每个人都能获取并受益于 AI 带来的机遇。
05
未来尚未写就
AGI 有潜力成为推进科学和医学的终极工具，带来巨大的生产力提升和经济增长。但要实现这一点，我们需要先把技术根基打牢：围绕一个共享的全球框架协调行动，采用最严格的科学方法，把最优秀的头脑聚集起来，共同应对我们面前的挑战。
即便我们解决了这些艰深的技术难题，还会有更复杂的经济和哲学问题等着我们：在一个后稀缺的世界里，需要什么样的新经济模式才能让每个人都过得好？我们想按什么样的价值观生活？意义和目标会是什么？甚至人类境况本身又会如何改变？解决这些问题，显然不能也不应该只留给技术人员。它需要社会的每一个部分都参与进来，一起定义这个新篇章。
围绕 AI，既有巨大的兴奋，也有巨大的不确定，两者都有道理。但未来尚未写就，我们必须利用 AGI 到来之前这扇宝贵的窗口，把这项技术塑造成造福全人类的东西。我们现在共同做出的选择，将决定文明的下一个阶段如何展开。只要安全地引领 AGI 来到这个世界，我们就能进入一个科学发现与进步的新黄金时代，迎来一个人类无比繁盛的光明未来。
原文全文如下：
A Framework for Frontier AI and the Dawning of a New Age
This is a pivotal moment in human history. Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), a system that exhibits all the cognitive capabilities the brain has, is probably only a few short years away. When we look back on this time in the decades to come, I think we will realise we were standing in the foothills of the singularity - nothing less than the dawning of a new age for humanity.
I’ve spent my whole life working on AGI because I’ve always had a deep conviction that, if built and deployed responsibly, it would prove to be one of the most beneficial and transformative technologies ever invented. AGI cannot be compared to standard technological breakthroughs, not even ones as consequential as the internet or mobile - it is much more akin to the discovery of electricity or fire. If you stop to think about it, we’ve essentially found a way to make sand think. It’s miraculous.
The magnitude of this technology’s impact will be unprecedented, perhaps 10x of the Industrial Revolution at 10x the speed. It will help us solve some of the biggest problems society faces from accelerating drug discovery to developing new clean energy sources to creating novel advanced materials. We could even reach a point where resources are no longer the limiting factor for human progress, leading to an amazing new era of abundance.
The Challenges of the Frontier
AI is already starting to deliver real-world benefits but to realise its immense promise, we have to navigate this critical period of development thoughtfully and carefully. Urgent action is needed to address risks that might arise as we get closer to AGI. We’ve already seen the challenges frontier models pose for cybersecurity, and other threats including nuclear and bio risks may soon emerge as capabilities continue to advance. On the horizon, we will need robust safeguards to maintain control of increasingly agentic, recursively self-improving systems - and tackle unknown issues that will only become clearer over time.
I’ve always believed in the power of human ingenuity and creativity to solve any problem. I’m confident that mitigating the technical risks related to AI is a challenge we can collectively address, but only if we give ourselves the time and space to get this next crucial step right. Currently, as a field and as a wider society, we aren’t doing that.
At the moment, we are locked in an extremely intense, multilayered commercial and geopolitical race. While these competitive dynamics fuel rapid progress and accelerate the incredible upsides, advances on the frontier are outpacing our understanding of the technology. Nobody in the world knows for sure what is going to happen from here, and even the experts disagree. When there is a large degree of uncertainty and the stakes are this high, proceeding with cautious optimism is the sensible and correct strategy. That calls for public policy that promotes innovation while also incentivising responsibility and security, fosters international collaboration on key safety issues, and encourages careful consideration of how AI is deployed for the benefit of society.
A Framework for a Frontier AI Standards Body
The rapid progress we’re seeing in AI requires a new approach to testing frontier AI model capabilities that is dynamic, adaptable, and rigorous. The US is well positioned, given its economic and technical standing, to take the first step in developing such a framework. It could establish a new Standards Body modelled on a federally overseen public-private partnership or self-regulatory organisation, much like the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), with a board that includes independent leading technical experts and open-source representatives. Funding would need to be substantial and likely mostly come from industry, in order to attract world-class technical talent and provide the necessary compute resources for large-scale testing.
The Standards Body would be responsible for developing assessment protocols and working with appropriate federal agencies and the US National Labs to conduct testing in areas relevant to national security. A model would qualify as ‘Frontier-class’ if it meets certain thresholds on a set of benchmarks determined by the Standards Body and regularly updated to keep pace with evolving AI capabilities. Organisations with ‘Frontier Models’ as defined by those benchmarks would be deemed ‘Frontier Labs’, and be encouraged to adopt best practices, such as publishing model cards with technical details, maintaining strong internal cybersecurity, vetting key personnel, and providing sufficient resourcing for safety and security research, and more.
Initially, Frontier Labs would voluntarily share models with the Standards Body for review up to 30 days before release. Once the assessment protocol is shown to be effective and robust, formalisation could quickly follow, meaning that Frontier Models would be required to pass it to be deployed in the US market. Labs would also work with the Standards Body to address any critical post-release vulnerabilities.
Model assessments should include rigorous scientific evaluations of capabilities in cybersecurity, biological threats and other high-risk domains. Specific agentic AI tests could look for attempts to bypass safety guardrails or signs of deception, and ensure best practices, such as digitally watermarking AI-generated images and generating human-readable output tokens to understand model reasoning.
These evaluations would be regularly updated, perhaps quarterly to start, with outdated or saturated benchmarks being deprecated and replaced. Initially, they would be developed in consultation with Frontier Labs, but eventually the Standards Body should build up the technical capacity to create its own held-out tests independent of the Labs to prevent overfitting. Working with the US government, it could promote an ecosystem of third-party auditors to help with the assessments and development of new benchmarks and evaluations.
The strength of this approach is it would be technically focused, while at the same time supporting innovation and incentivising responsible behaviour. It is designed to keep up with the field’s acceleration and adapt to the biggest risks as they are identified, and could be ratcheted up if the seriousness of the situation demands, including coordinating a slowdown in development among the Frontier Labs if deemed necessary. Being designated a Frontier Lab would carry significant prestige and be open to any organisation by building models that meet the benchmark criteria. The framework could apply to Frontier-class models no matter their country of origin or whether they are open or closed, but any non-frontier models, say from startups or academia, would be exempt from this process.
This US-initiated effort would provide a strong starting point for creating shared international standards on Frontier AI. Since this technology is going to affect the entire planet, ideally this framework would spur the international community to reach a consensus on how to manage the most serious risks while ensuring everyone has access to and can benefit from the opportunities that AI brings.
The Future Is Not Yet Written
AGI has the potential to be the ultimate tool for advancing science and medicine, and to drive enormous productivity gains and economic growth. But in order to achieve this, we need to get the technical foundations right by coordinating around a shared global framework, using the most rigorous scientific methods, and bringing the best minds together to work on the challenges we face.
Even if we solve these hard technical challenges, there will be further complex economic and philosophical questions to tackle: what sorts of new economic models will be needed to help everyone thrive in a post-scarcity world? What values do we want to live by, what will meaning and purpose be, and how might even the human condition itself change? Resolving these questions obviously cannot and should not be left to technologists alone. It requires every part of society to come together to help define this new chapter.
There is both huge excitement and uncertainty around AI, and both are warranted. But the future is not yet written, we must use this precious window before AGI arrives to shape this technology for the benefit of all humanity. What we collectively do now will determine how the next phase of civilisation unfolds. By safely stewarding AGI into the world, we can enter a new golden age of scientific discovery and progress, and usher in a bright future of incredible human flourishing.
原文（X Article）：https://x.com/demishassabis/status/2076957440109625718
